Elliott and Associates Research Global Markets: JAZA bans Taiji dolphins in Japanese facilities

JAZA (Japanese Association of Zoos and Aquariums) have finally announced that it won't permit its members anymore to purchase dolphins from Taiji after an international body suspended its membership on ethical grounds.

During an emergency board meeting of JAZA, 99 out of 142 of its members decided to vote in favor of remaining associated with the WAZA (World Association of Zoos and Aquariums) and agree in the latter's condition to stop buying Taiji dolphins.

WAZA has previously suspended JAZA for its unethical procurement of dolphins from the infamous town of Taiji and has recently threatened to expel JAZA if it continues with the practice.

"JAZA board decided that JAZA will prohibit its members to acquire wild dolphins caught by drive fishing in Taiji and to take part in their export and sale. It is our wish at JAZA to remain as a member of WAZA and thereby contribute for the zoos and aquariums," JAZA said in its statement.

The board's decision to stay in the international association will keep them connected when it comes to rare animals' database collection, without which it will be difficult to get breeding partners from abroad.

Australia for Dolphins' chief executive said that they are pleased that Japan's main zoo body is choosing to stop supporting the business of dolphin hunting. It said in its statement: "This momentous decision marks the beginning of the end for dolphin hunting in Japan. The capture of live dolphins, which sell for up to USD 100,000 is the motivation for the brutal dolphin hunts in Taiji. JAZA aquariums provide up to 40% of total demand for live dolphins from Taiji. So, as of today, the market for Taiji dolphins could be nearly cut in half. Without demand, the hunts won't continue."

But its chairman, Kazutoshi Arai, was quick to clear to Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets that their decision should not be interpreted as condemning or criticizing the whaling culture of Taiji.

Despite worldwide backlash, Taiji fishermen still intends to continue with the dolphin hunts, claiming that it is already part of their local culture. Taiji's Mayor Kazutaka Sangen said, "We are hunting under the permission of the Japanese government and prefecture, and so we will continue to protect our fishermen and the methods. We will not quit."

In Japan, dolphin meat is something of a delicacy but is now gradually losing its market. The industry now is left to provide for the entertainment sector where dolphins sell for very high prices.

Around 250 dolphins are known to be among the facilities of 30 members of JAZA consisting of 63 aquariums and 89 zoos. It is estimated by Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets that almost 20 dolphins are purchased by the local aquariums from the whaling town of Taiji annually.

Elliott & Associates Research Japan Global Markets: Consumer Spending Still Down

Figures from Japan's government this week is showing weak consumption in contrast to an uptick in factory output, highlighting just how uneven the nation's slow road to recovery is.

Consumer spending has decreased by 5%, marking ten months of declining rates which is the longest the market has seen since 2009's global economy crisis. At the beginning of the year, most Japanese have already cut back on their spending, which resulted in the retail industry suffering an unexpectedly sharp decrease in the last two quarters.

Experts of Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets claim that a potential difficulty for the industrial sector is a scenario where consumer spending does not increase in a couple of months. Another challenge against the recovery is the significantly low consumer spending due to the wages that have yet to increase along with the rise in sales tax.

On the other hand, corporations seem to be doing relatively better as they appear to be profiting from a weak yen, giving their products an advantage over competitors. Factory production has increased 4%, drastically higher than predicted by economists, as companies receive more orders from foreign markets. As it is, exports are expected to at least hold the domestic economy together for a time.

A senior economist from SMBC Nikko Securities said, "Output is showing signs of an export-led recovery... This virtuous cycle of factory activity will continue to underpin Japanese output and capital spending ahead."

Originally, the Japanese government planned another tax increase for October but has since delayed implementing it by 2 years owing to the weak economic conditions. A disaster or an unexpected crisis is expected to further delay any other increase in sales tax.

Reports from Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets show doubt that the BOJ can really meet its target as it is expected to take half a year for the benefits of reduced oil prices to push market growth -- and that's not even counting if consumers will actually spend what little they have saved from the lower fuel bills.

BOJ's Haruhiko Kuroda has defended their timeframe in reaching the target because, according to him, not adopting an urgent approach is likely to undermine any effort to counter deflation.

Such inflation data only shows that the market will not likely reach the Bank of Japan's goal of 2% inflation by April. It is widely predicted that Japan will face a fiscal crisis in 5-7 years' time if the government fails to push sales tax over the 15% mark. This owes to the fact that the Japanese population continuously age, their high savings will significantly decrease, and the general public won't be able to carry the debt it's already handling.

Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets: Japan's Death Spiral and its Economic Effects

Japan's number of births has hit an all-time low for 4 years in a row, spelling a worrying issue on its already delicate economy.

In 2014, the estimated birth-rate in Japan reached a record low of a mere 1 million while the number of registered deaths reached 1.3 million. Such downward trajectory in the country even worsens the already bad situation with a shrinking and aging population.

As noted by Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets, births in Japan have seen a huge and relentless decline for decades now. Starting in 1973, there was not a year where the fertility rate in Japan hit enough numbers to support a stabilized population. Though there were some recent improvements made, they were still not enough to increase the numbers. The number of deaths that has outnumbered the number of births by the biggest margin yet poses a problem for the government to ensure the small workforce can continue to support growing number of seniors.

Experts would say Japan is in a "death spiral" because its demography has been on a bad situation for a long time now that it is virtually impossible to change its trajectory significantly.

Data shows that the so-called "death spiral" started in the 1970s and has since proceeded in a gradual but steady decline. Indeed, last year's population decline was a record low but that's already something to be expected every year for the next decades.

According to an official from Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets with knowledge of the data, the women of who are of reproductive age are declining which inevitably leads to a decline in the number of kids. To be fair, Japanese women today are having a bit more children on average than they did years ago. However, there are fewer women in the population now who could bear a child so it's still not enough to make up for the difference.

Japan's government bond market has been surprisingly strong even in such demographic issues though this cannot be counted on to continue indefinitely. There will come a time that people will realize Japan won't have enough productive citizens anymore and so won't be able to return debts (except perhaps by printing money).

The Japanese government has already issued a warning that by the year 2060, almost 40% of their population would consist of seniors. As it is, they are already having difficulties supporting the pensioners that make up one fourth of its total population now.